Baikely
TL;DR
- Plan holidays from the same holiday last year, not from last week. Normal weeks know nothing about them.
- Demand shifts between products, not just in volume: some double, some fall.
- Take pre-orders and plan them separately from walk-in demand.
- Check the days around the holiday too: the day before and after often change as much as the day itself.
How do bakeries plan production for holidays?
For each product, start from what it sold on the same holiday last year, adjust for anything that has changed since (prices, menu, opening hours), then add pre-orders on top. Recent weekday averages are the right tool for normal days and the wrong one for holidays.
Why holidays break normal planning
A regular plan uses the last few same weekdays. A holiday Monday is not like the last three Mondays:
- Volume changes: some holidays are your busiest day, some are the quietest.
- The mix changes: sandwich loaves and brioche might jump for a family holiday while office pastries fall.
- Timing changes: customers come earlier, or all at once.
Illustrative, comparing a normal Monday with a holiday Monday last year:
| Product | Normal Monday | Holiday Monday last year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baguette tradition | 110 | 160 | +45% |
| Pain de mie | 30 | 62 | +107% |
| Butter croissant | 92 | 130 | +41% |
| Sandwiches | 40 | 12 | −70% |
| Tarts (whole) | 6 | 25 | +317% |
One percentage for everything would have been badly wrong for at least three of those.
Step 1: Pull last year's numbers for each product
Use sales on the same holiday last year, and the days just before and after. If a product sold out last year, note when: last year's sales understate demand for that item.
Step 2: Adjust for what has changed
New products, removed products, price changes, longer or shorter hours, and the general trend of the business since last year.
Step 3: Separate pre-orders
Custom cakes, tarts and holiday specialties ordered in advance are fixed quantities. Plan them on their own sheet with pickup times, and add only the walk-in forecast to the regular production plan. Set an order cut-off that leaves time to prepare two-day products.
Step 4: Plan the days around it
The day before a holiday is often a peak (people stocking up); the day after can be quiet. Plan those days from last year's equivalents too.
Step 5: Plan staff and ingredients from the production plan
Higher volume means more mixing, shaping and baking hours, and larger ingredient orders. Order the ingredients early: suppliers are busy around holidays too.
Step 6: Record what happened
Leftovers and sell-out times on holidays are next year's plan. Write them down per product, the same way as any other day.
How Baikely handles special days
In Baikely, holidays and special days (including local events you add yourself) are planned from the same day last year, product by product, instead of the recent weekday average. When there is no history for a new event, it shows you so you can decide.
Frequently asked questions
How much more should a bakery bake on a holiday?
It depends on the holiday, your neighborhood and the product. Last year's numbers for the same holiday, product by product, are a far better guide than a general rule.
What if I have no data from last year?
Use the closest comparable day you do have (a similar holiday or a busy Saturday), take more pre-orders, and plan a second bake to adjust during the day.
How early should I take holiday orders?
Early enough to plan ingredients and staff, with a firm cut-off before you have to start two-day products.