Baikely
TL;DR
- A par level is the standard quantity you make of a product, or keep of an ingredient.
- One par per weekday, not one par per product: Monday and Saturday are different businesses.
- Pars go stale: review them every few weeks against leftovers and sell-out times.
- Treat a par as a starting point, then adjust for events and what you know about tomorrow.
What is a par level in a bakery?
A par level is the quantity you normally make of a product on a given day, or the quantity of an ingredient you want on hand after a delivery. It is the default that saves you deciding everything from scratch every day.
Bakeries use pars in two places:
| Finished goods par | Ingredient par | |
|---|---|---|
| Example | 120 baguettes on a Friday | 190 kg of flour after delivery |
| Decided by | Sales of that product on that weekday | Usage between deliveries plus buffer |
| Goes wrong when | Demand changes and the par does not | Usage grows or deliveries slip |
How do you set finished goods par levels?
- Take each product's sales for the same weekday over the last 3 to 4 weeks.
- Use the median if one of those days was unusual (a holiday, a storm).
- Adjust for sell-outs: if the product sold out early on those days, the par is too low; raise it in steps.
- Adjust for leftovers: if there were regular leftovers, lower it.
- Round to your batch size. A par of 47 when your tray holds 12 is really 48.
Illustrative, for butter croissants:
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sales | 92 | 88 | 95 | 101 | 128 | 176 | 150 |
| Sold out early? | 3 of 4 weeks | ||||||
| Leftovers avg | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Par (rounded to 12) | 96 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 132 | 192 | 156 |
Saturday gets a step of about 10% because it kept selling out. Tuesday rounds down rather than up because it regularly carries leftovers.
How do you set ingredient par levels?
Usage between deliveries plus a safety buffer. Illustrative: 150 kg of flour a week, weekly delivery, two days of buffer: 150 + (150 ÷ 7 × 2) ≈ 193 kg. Each order tops back up to par.
Why par levels go wrong
- They are set once and forgotten. Neighborhoods, seasons and menus change.
- They are one number for every day. A single par guarantees Monday leftovers and Saturday sell-outs.
- Nobody records sell-out times, so a par that is too low looks fine: "we sold everything."
How often should you review pars?
Every few weeks, product by product, and after any change: new menu item, new opening hours, the start of a season. The data you need is the same every time: sales by weekday, leftovers and sell-out times.
Pars versus a daily forecast
A par is a fixed default. A daily forecast is a par that updates itself. Baikely effectively recalculates each product's par for each day from the latest three weeks of sales, adds estimated missed sales on sell-out days, and uses last year for special days, so the number in front of the baker is never months out of date. See bakery sales forecasting for the method.
Frequently asked questions
Is a par level the same as a production plan?
A par is one input. The production plan for a specific day starts from the par and adjusts for events, orders and anything else you know about that day.
Should every product have a par?
Every product you make daily, yes. Special-order and seasonal items are planned separately.
What is the difference between par level and safety stock?
Safety stock is the buffer inside an ingredient par to cover late deliveries or busy weeks. For finished goods, the equivalent is the small extra you choose to bake for products you never want to run out of.